Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Gingrich is ACTUALLY here

Back in 2007 during the onset of the presidential campaign, SNL was, as we all know, rampant with political sketches. I remember one very clearly that I watched one Saturday night while hanging out with my best friend.

It was an animated sketch from the ‘TV Funhouse’ edition and Oprah Winfrey was interviewing the horde of candidates. As they went from candidate to candidate, mocking each of them they came to Newt Gingrich who merely said, “I’m not actually here,” and with a snap of his fingers, disappeared.

It was funny because it was so odd, and to be honest, although I had been keeping up with the campaigns, I knew very little about Newt Gingrich. Four years later his name is not so unfamiliar, as I have become aware of his political history. Still his presence in the current campaign has not been strong—until recently.

In a McClatchy-Marist poll released today, Newt Gingrich is apparently considered the strongest Republican candidate to take on President Obama in next year’s election. According to the poll Gingrich trails Obama by two percentage points, 47 to 45 percent.

The runner up is Mitt Romney, who trails by four percentage points, 48 to 44 percent. Followed by Ron Paul who trails Obama by 8 points. Following Paul is Cain, then Romney and lastly Bachmann (thank god).

Last week, as Perry continued to fall from favor, Gingrich jumped then runner-up Herman Cain for the second spot behind Romney, but this latest polls indicate a further shift in the GOP spotlight.

According to an article by the Miami Herald, the continued success of Romney and rise of Gingrich is due to the political stance of the two:

“One reason why Gingrich and Romney do better than other Republicans against Obama is that they both win independent voters, who swing back and forth. Gingrich wins independents by 47 percent to 41 percent over Obama. Romney does even better with that swing bloc, carrying them 55 percent to 39 percent.”

That would suggest that, given Gingrich’s recent popularity, he still appeals to more Republican voters than Romney. This too is supported by the poll as well, according the article.

“Gingrich does better among Republicans than Romney, though, winning 84 percent of their support, vs. Romney's 80 percent. They both get the support of 83 percent of tea party voters. They also have identical support among conservatives, each getting 73 percent of conservative support in a hypothetical general election faceoff with Obama.”

However, we can’t focus too much on these two candidates. It is still early in the campaign and so far Romney is the only candidate to consistently stay near the top of the GOP. It will be interesting to see if Gingrich can maintain his new found lead.

Either way I look forward to seeing the rest of the race play out. I think there is still a lot to be learned about the candidates and who knows who can emerge at the head of the race next?

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